Fed's Favored Inflation Measure May Show Softer Rise Than CPI Suggests

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January revealed an unexpected surge, with core prices, excluding food and energy, climbing by 0.4% and surpassing many predictions. This uptick was largely driven by a 0.7% increase in core services, marking the most significant rise since September 2022. However, this spike in the CPI might not fully translate to the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. Key differences between these measures, such as the lower weighting of shelter costs and distinct calculations for medical care services in the PCE, mean inflation rates reported by the core CPI could remain higher than those shown by the core PCE index.