Fed's Inflation Blunder Sets Stage for Looming US Recession, Says Top Economist

Brevan Howard’s chief economist warns that the Federal Reserve’s significant misjudgment of inflation levels has steered the United States towards an inevitable recession in 2024. The central bank’s aggressive monetary policy, marked by the sharpest interest rate hikes in forty years – from near-zero in March 2022 to between 5.25% and 5.5% by July 2023 – is exerting considerable downward pressure on the economy. This tightening of monetary policy, described as one of the most stringent on the brink of a recession, has been a critical factor in the economic downturn. The labor market shows significant signs of strain, with hiring nearly at a standstill and a notable drop in the number of people moving from the labor force into jobs.