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For a record 446 days, this recession indicator pointed to a downturn that never arrived

A still-healthy U.S. labor market is one of the factors that has upended expectations for an economic downturn. One of the bond market’s most reliable signals of an impending U.S. recession remained inverted for the 446th straight trading session as of Monday — matching a record without producing any economic downturn.   The policy-sensitive 2-year [...] READ MORE

Huge debt costs mean climate spending could make emerging nations insolvent

LONDON, April 14 (Reuters) - Emerging countries will pay a record $400 billion to service external debt this year, and 47 of them cannot spend the money they need for climate adaptation and sustainable development without risking default in the next five years, according to a report released on the eve of IMF/World Bank spring [...] READ MORE

Currency Volatility Is Back as Geopolitics Add to Dollar Bets

Currency Volatility Is Back as Geopolitics Add to Dollar Bets (Bloomberg) -- Volatility in the currency market is surging as traders bet renewed concerns over geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and faster-than-expected inflation in the US will propel the dollar higher.   A gauge for hedging swings in major currencies over the next month [...] READ MORE

Gold: Yet another investment bank ups the ante as political pressures increase

  It follows the more bullish stance taken by Goldman Sachs, which, on Monday, adjusted its forecast to $2,700 per ounce, up from $2,300, in recognition of a robust bull market.   Both financial giants cite heightened investment inflows and escalating geopolitical tensions as key drivers behind their revised forecasts.   Middle East conflict is [...] READ MORE

Gold is shining ‘bright like a diamond’ and could hit $3,000, says Citi

KEY POINTS   Gold prices continued its rally as Middle East tensions spurred demand, lifted by the bullion’s safe haven appeal. Gold prices notched another record close Monday, with the most-active June contract for gold futures settling at $2,383 per ounce. Gold prices continued to hover near record highs days after Middle East tensions flared, [...] READ MORE

Dollar Heads for Best Run in a Year as Fed Seen Delaying Cuts

Dollar Heads for Best Run in a Year as Fed Seen Delaying Cuts (Bloomberg) -- The dollar is headed for its biggest rally in over a year on expectations US interest rates will stay high for longer and as investors pile into the haven currency amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.   The Bloomberg [...] READ MORE

China’s gold market in March: official gold reserves rose further, wholesale demand fell slightly

Key highlights: The Shanghai Gold Benchmark PM (SHAUPM) in RMB jumped by 10% in March and the LBMA Gold Price AM in USD rose by 8%. The SHAUPM ended Q1 with a 10% gain, outperforming major local asset classes 124t of gold left the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) in March, a mild 3t fall from [...] READ MORE

Gold Ignores Negative News: Bulls Overexuberant?

Gold has been hitting all-time highs almost daily for the past two weeks, reaching $2365 in the spot market on Tuesday before the start of US trading. The ability to rise above $2070 per ounce, which gold found in late February, has signalled a break of resistance that has kept gold above since August 2020. [...] READ MORE

Gold ETF Flows: March 2024

Outflows narrowed in March Regional and fund-specific analysis of gold holdings and flows in USD. Gold-backed ETFs and similar products account for a significant part of the gold market, with institutional and individual investors using them to implement many of their investment strategies. Flows in ETFs often highlight short-term and long-term opinions and desires to [...] READ MORE